The Evolution of Search: Chapter Two
IN EARLY 2002, just before the Internet search "big bang," a major
travel client informed us that all search-related
expenditures would be stricken from their online ad budget. The client’s
rationale was relatively simple: "Search keywords are too expensive
and therefore impossible to realize an appropriate return on their
advertising investment."
I wasn’t sure what to tell the client, as search was still a nascent
ad medium and we were ringing up sales, leads
and traffic for this company in record numbers
(approximately 12,000 sales per month at an average sale
of over $300 per transaction). Fortunately,
our recommendation held and we went on to set new records for exceedingly
low cost-per-booking on hundreds of keywords.
Fast-forward a few years.
It is 2005 and many of the keywords we had
purchased for this big client have become
unaffordable. As bid prices skyrocket, only
to be outpaced by Google’s stock price, the
market is slowly finding the natural high ground, or “market cost,”
for competitive search terms. The trend is due to the limited inventory
of searches, and a huge demand for the most competitive
"money maker" terms.
The Rise and Fall of Natural
Search
Enter the marketing pros who love
math more than creative and have measured
and archived results data, developing their
own proprietary algorithms for optimizing
Web page content and off-page linking to dramatically
improve a clients standing in search results.
Almost overnight, Natural Search Engine Optimization (NSEO) has become
the talk of the Internet.
When all your rivals are bidding on the same
keywords and running their own NSEO plans,
the cost to play grows rapidly. There is
also growing evidence that there is a shortage
of quality search traffic. Conventional wisdom would dictate that with
search term bid prices reaching their market ceiling, the market
will inevitably cool as ad revenues flatten
out. Many think otherwise, and with good reason there’s a whole new
brand of "search"
evolving.
While NSEO is sure to suffer
major casualties over the next 3-5 years,
opportunities will materialize as the major
search engines continue to evolve into better,
faster, smarter structures. It is a mathematical certainty that they
will quantify and prioritize the most relevant sites, and present a
problem that NSEOs alone won’t be able to solve.
The silver lining is that its demise will
give rise to a new level of content creation
and search- optimized Web design. In short,
when the science of natural search optimization
dies off, the Web experience gets better. How’s
that for evolution?
Enter the Carnivores: Microsoft Cometh
The market
is enthusiastic about MSN Search with initial
feedback cautiously optimistic about a brand
with one or the largest networks on the Internet
behind it. MSN Search promises more than the
search we know today, though it’s premature
to say that the quality of that traffic is exceedingly high. It’s probably
a safe bet that Microsoft has far more in store for search that just
the Web and your PC. And they are not alone. All other major players
are stressing innovative solutions to extend their search
franchises.
Within the next few years expect
every database (like Microsoft’s SQL Server),
video feed and sound clip (like MS Windows
Media), and programs/documents (like Office)
to be indexed with increasingly granularity and
intelligence. Yet search won’t stop there.
Inventories, people, property and pets, and all other attributes, will
be searchable. Expect "next generation search" to enable
women who have signed up for online dating
sites to search for men whose eyes remarkably resemble Brad Pitt’s.
Or men to locate a date with a voice like Fran Drescher’s.
 If you thought
you were in the age of "too much information"
think again. Overt the next few years, watch
for the real time indexing and searching of
a multitude of content as it is created, and with devices that we
currently don’t think of as data gophers. Clearly Microsoft is
out to put Windows on every apparatus you click,
carry and call. All of these
devices will be able to search and retrieve
content significant to the consumer using
them. Perhaps they should code name this initiative
T-Rex, as it has potential to become
king of the food chain.
Microsoft’s entrance
as a force in search will spur Google and
Yahoo! to innovate or become search "dinosaurs." More likely, however,
is that Search Engine Optimization providers,
agencies and the engines themselves, all must change. Remember,
dinosaurs evolved to become today’s birds.
Innovation and evolution won’t kill most search
players and the impact they make on business; it may
actually give them wings.
Ferranti is founding
partner/CEO at New York-based search optimization
firm Endai Worldwide, whose clients include
Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Laplink Software
and Citigroup Financial. |
